Undercounting the census would value Texas billions

Accurate censuses are far more than just a matter of interest. They are critical to ensuring adequate federal funding for various programs, adequate representation in Congress, and an understanding of demographic trends for future planning.

Over 300 federal programs rely on census data to allocate funds geographically, as do numerous state and local initiatives. For example, many resources and dollars are distributed to hospitals and clinics according to census data. Important aspects of the social safety net like Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and Housing Vouchers also depend on census estimates – programs that only become more important as the pandemic continues to hit the economy.

The economic and tax costs of a substantial undercount would be substantial. We recently estimated that direct losses on federal funding in Texas could be nearly $ 21.3 billion, or an average of $ 2.1 billion per year, over the 2021-2030 period. The main categories of funding cuts are in sectors that are critical to the continued well-being of the population and the economy, such as healthcare, housing, education and infrastructure.

Direct losses lead to negative ripple effects in the economy and multiply the macroeconomic damage of an undercount. During the decade, total losses include gross product of $ 39.2 billion and nearly 418,500 years of employment. Even beyond these negative economic effects, cuts in funding lead to significant “downstream” effects such as a reduction in well-being, less improvement in infrastructure, greater food insecurity and more limited vocational training. The decline in economic activity related to funding losses would also lead to a significant drop in tax revenue for state and local authorities, including cities, counties, schools and specialty counties (also beyond the loss of direct funding). It should be noted that, under normal circumstances, these actions were based on the “expected” countdown in Texas. We seem to be heading for a much, much worse outcome.

In a challenging year, the importance of filling out census forms can easily be lost on seemingly more pressing concerns. Collecting census data is difficult at best, and the added complications of the pandemic are very real. Vulnerable populations (including young children in low-income families, people with insecurity and immigrants) are particularly difficult to count. The recent executive order blocking the admission of undocumented immigrants to the legislative breakdown, while unlikely to be upheld, may further hamper participation. Choosing to reduce the time it takes to respond can only make the situation worse.

Accurate census counts are critical to ensuring communities get the representation and funding they need. The effects of this year’s census will continue throughout the decade, and the consequences of a significant undercount are profound. Fill out the census – and stay safe!

Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group, a business and financial analyst company.